FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

273.63 – 330.14

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

179 – 308

Prediction correct · off by 58.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 541.8 ±9.3

11024HYPERNOVA

Season APEX 151.4Event APEX 53.6Rank 60Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7415Jaguar Robotics Sponsored By Feit Electric

Season APEX 284.3Event APEX 123.12Rank 8Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2485Overclocked

Season APEX 106.1Event APEX 96.91Rank 52Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 522.5 ±9.8

6995NOMAD

Season APEX 191.6Event APEX 154.99Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

968RAWC (Robotics Alliance Of West Covina)

Season APEX 86.7Event APEX 48.44Rank 59Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9084Octobots

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 126.71Rank 13Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11024, 7415, 2485

/ 100 compat

Projected

273.6 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11024, 7415, 2485

Auto

59.4 23%

Teleop

141.8 55%

Endgame

54.3 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6995, 968, 9084

/ 100 compat

Projected

330.1 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6995, 968, 9084

Auto

67.7 20%

Teleop

204.7 62%

Endgame

59.9 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.35 · Blue 2.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score273.6pts

Blue projected score330.1pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 22%, blue 24%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -56.5
Score range: 216–388
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 487 vs event baseline 322.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

541.8Season APEX522.5

59.4Auto67.7

141.8Teleop204.7

54.3Endgame59.9

102Consistency163

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	72	71
teleop	102	131
endgame	5	61
foul	0	45
total	179	308

Result

Final score

179 – 308

Prediction correct · off by 58.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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