FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

231.17 – 258.81

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

345 – 228

Prediction missed · off by 72.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 462.2 ±9.8

294Beach Cities Robotics

Season APEX 290.9Event APEX 134.78Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4079Quantum Leap

Season APEX 70.3Event APEX 13.12Rank 47Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2710JetStream

Season APEX 101Event APEX 83.27Rank 54Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 364.5 ±10.4

2404Team NEY Techs (TNT)

Season APEX 96.7Event APEX 1.11Rank 50Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1148Harvard Westlake Robotics

Season APEX 121.3Event APEX 148.65Rank 48Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4Team 4 ELEMENT

Season APEX 146.5Event APEX 109.05Rank 35Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 294, 4079, 2710

/ 100 compat

Projected

231.2 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 294, 4079, 2710

Auto

68.5 30%

Teleop

139.1 61%

Endgame

20.4 9%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2404, 1148, 4

/ 100 compat

Projected

258.8 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2404, 1148, 4

Auto

9.1 4%

Teleop

143.9 62%

Endgame

80.1 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.72 · Blue 2.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score231.2pts

Blue projected score258.8pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 21%, blue 26%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -27.6
Score range: 173–317
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 573 vs event baseline 323.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

462.2Season APEX364.5

68.5Auto9.1

139.1Teleop143.9

20.4Endgame80.1

142Consistency147

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	73	25
teleop	178	144
endgame	84	59
foul	10	0
total	345	228

Result

Final score

345 – 228

Prediction missed · off by 72.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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