FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

541.8 – 339.23

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

651 – 437

Prediction correct · off by 103.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 831.4 ±9.3

4414HighTide

Season APEX 418.9Event APEX 327.39Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9452LHS Steel Stingers

Season APEX 159.2Event APEX 105.83Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4201The Vitruvian Bots

Season APEX 253.3Event APEX 108.58Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 696.1 ±9.3

5136MechaPirates

Season APEX 152.1Event APEX 80.98Rank 29Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

973Greybots

A+

Season APEX 316.4Event APEX 154.67Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

687The Nerd Herd

Season APEX 227.6Event APEX 103.58Rank 24Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4414, 9452, 4201

/ 100 compat

Projected

541.8 pts

~3.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4414, 9452, 4201

Auto

100.6 19%

Teleop

295.1 56%

Endgame

130.2 25%

Strengths

· 4414 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 44%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5136, 973, 687

/ 100 compat

Projected

339.2 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5136, 973, 687

Auto

82.4 24%

Teleop

179.7 53%

Endgame

78.1 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 44%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.97 · Blue 1.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score541.8pts

Blue projected score339.2pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 44%, blue 34%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 202.6
Score range: 282–599
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1088 vs event baseline 318.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

831.4Season APEX696.1

100.6Auto82.4

295.1Teleop179.7

130.2Endgame78.1

75Consistency125

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	95	57
teleop	352	262
endgame	204	113
foul	0	5
total	651	437

Result

Final score

651 – 437

Prediction correct · off by 103.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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