Qualification · Qualification 53
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
270 – 255.79
54%46%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
327 – 316
Prediction correct · off by 58.6 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 718.2 ±9.3
Season APEX 296.9Event APEX 162.96Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 308.7Event APEX 65.23Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 112.6Event APEX 41.81Rank 45Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 516 ±9.8
Season APEX 135Event APEX 111.34Rank 30Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 141.6Event APEX 57.25Rank 41Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 239.4Event APEX 87.2Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 3255, 3128, 5805
58
/ 100 compatProjected
270 pts
~2.0 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 3255, 3128, 5805
Auto
29.4 11%
Teleop
151.5 57%
Endgame
84.3 32%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
RP bonus probability
Energized: 62%
Supercharged: 26%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 3408, 1160, 8119
54
/ 100 compatProjected
255.8 pts
~1.8 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 3408, 1160, 8119
Auto
7.6 3%
Teleop
131.6 55%
Endgame
99.1 42%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
RP bonus probability
Energized: 62%
Supercharged: 26%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.98 · Blue 1.83
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score270pts
Blue projected score255.8pts
Red win probability54%
Event bonus sample270alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 62%, blue 67%
Supercharged bonusred 26%, blue 23%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 14.2
- Score range
- 199–327
- Upset likelihood
- 46%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
718.2Season APEX516
29.4Auto7.6
151.5Teleop131.6
84.3Endgame99.1
131Consistency153
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 23 | 40 |
| teleop | 149 | 221 |
| endgame | 100 | 50 |
| foul | 55 | 5 |
| total | 327 | 316 |
Result
Final score
327 – 316
Prediction correct · off by 58.6 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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