FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

329.58 – 410.91

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

121 – 230

Prediction correct · off by 194.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 448.3 ±10.4

5474Clairemonster

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 178.46Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4999Momentum

Season APEX 97.4Event APEX 81.52Rank 51Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

589Falkon Robotics

Season APEX 186.8Event APEX 69.6Rank 56Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 628.7 ±9.3

3925Ventura Robotics

Season APEX 105.1Event APEX 47.32Rank 34Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9408Warren Warbots

A+

Season APEX 303.1Event APEX 168.42Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4322Clockwork

Season APEX 220.5Event APEX 195.17Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5474, 4999, 589

/ 100 compat

Projected

329.6 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5474, 4999, 589

Auto

26.7 8%

Teleop

219.3 68%

Endgame

78.7 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3925, 9408, 4322

/ 100 compat

Projected

410.9 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3925, 9408, 4322

Auto

51.6 13%

Teleop

205.5 53%

Endgame

127.7 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.35 · Blue 2.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score329.6pts

Blue projected score410.9pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 26%, blue 32%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -81.3
Score range: 272–469
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 351 vs event baseline 321.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

448.3Season APEX628.7

26.7Auto51.6

219.3Teleop205.5

78.7Endgame127.7

133Consistency139

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	46
teleop	49	175
endgame	28	4
foul	0	5
total	121	230

Result

Final score

121 – 230

Prediction correct · off by 194.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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