FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

300.86 – 322.62

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

142 – 240

Prediction correct · off by 120.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 335.6 ±10.4

3309Friarbots

Season APEX 90Event APEX 46.76Rank 53Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

812The Midnight Mechanics

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 46.13Rank 38Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

696Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 145.1Event APEX 207.97Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 521 ±9.8

3476Code Orange

A+

Season APEX 325.1Event APEX 233.64Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7042Poly Rabbotics

Season APEX 117.1Event APEX 41.72Rank 26Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10586Unearthed

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX 47.26Rank 58Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3309, 812, 696

/ 100 compat

Projected

300.9 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3309, 812, 696

Auto

51.8 18%

Teleop

160.2 55%

Endgame

77.1 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3476, 7042, 10586

/ 100 compat

Projected

322.6 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3476, 7042, 10586

Auto

92.0 29%

Teleop

140.0 44%

Endgame

89.6 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.75 · Blue 1.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score300.9pts

Blue projected score322.6pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 26%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -21.8
Score range: 243–381
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 382 vs event baseline 324.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

335.6Season APEX521

51.8Auto92

160.2Teleop140

77.1Endgame89.6

145Consistency133

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	74	99
teleop	43	83
endgame	25	53
foul	0	5
total	142	240

Result

Final score

142 – 240

Prediction correct · off by 120.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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