FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

237.83 – 192.28

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

218 – 187

Prediction correct · off by 12.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 384.8 ±10.4

2584Flame of The West

Season APEX 140.4Event APEX 120.66Rank 20Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3647Millennium Falcons

Season APEX 141.7Event APEX 102.54Rank 44Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2658Σ-Motion

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 14.63Rank 39Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 343.3 ±10.4

968RAWC (Robotics Alliance Of West Covina)

Season APEX 86.7Event APEX 29.93Rank 59Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4999Momentum

Season APEX 97.4Event APEX 47.94Rank 51Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9452LHS Steel Stingers

Season APEX 159.2Event APEX 114.41Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2584, 3647, 2658

/ 100 compat

Projected

237.8 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2584, 3647, 2658

Auto

66.3 30%

Teleop

117.6 53%

Endgame

40.1 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 968, 4999, 9452

/ 100 compat

Projected

192.3 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 968, 4999, 9452

Auto

23.3 12%

Teleop

106.2 56%

Endgame

58.7 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.2 · Blue 1.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score237.8pts

Blue projected score192.3pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 27%, blue 23%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 45.6
Score range: 130–300
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 405 vs event baseline 343.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

384.8Season APEX343.3

66.3Auto23.3

117.6Teleop106.2

40.1Endgame58.7

142Consistency97

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	63	12
teleop	118	115
endgame	32	55
foul	5	5
total	218	187

Result

Final score

218 – 187

Prediction correct · off by 12.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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