FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

294.73 – 331.06

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

243 – 257

Prediction correct · off by 62.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 457 ±9.8

6995NOMAD

Season APEX 191.6Event APEX 174.5Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7157μBotics

Season APEX 114Event APEX 33.57Rank 42Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11024HYPERNOVA

Season APEX 151.4Event APEX 86.66Rank 60Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 394.9 ±10.4

4123Tribe Robotics

Season APEX 140.5Event APEX 82.56Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6220The Golden Griffins

Season APEX 114.3Event APEX 84.92Rank 46Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4415EPIC Robotz

Season APEX 140.1Event APEX 163.58Rank 21Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6995, 7157, 11024

/ 100 compat

Projected

294.7 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6995, 7157, 11024

Auto

45.8 16%

Teleop

152.0 53%

Endgame

87.5 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4123, 6220, 4415

/ 100 compat

Projected

331.1 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4123, 6220, 4415

Auto

59.8 18%

Teleop

176.3 54%

Endgame

89.9 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.57 · Blue 2.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score294.7pts

Blue projected score331.1pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 76%

Supercharged bonusred 23%, blue 23%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -36.3
Score range: 236–390
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 500 vs event baseline 325.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

457Season APEX394.9

45.8Auto59.8

152Teleop176.3

87.5Endgame89.9

222Consistency185

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	86
teleop	145	114
endgame	55	57
foul	5	0
total	243	257

Result

Final score

243 – 257

Prediction correct · off by 62.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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