FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

376.01 – 294.9

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

191 – 333

Prediction missed · off by 111.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 421.1 ±9.8

1148Harvard Westlake Robotics

Season APEX 121.3Event APEX 164.92Rank 48Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2429The Blockheads

Season APEX 229.5Event APEX 168.27Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4079Quantum Leap

Season APEX 70.3Event APEX 42.82Rank 47Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 533.4 ±9.8

9084Octobots

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 132.54Rank 13Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4Team 4 ELEMENT

Season APEX 146.5Event APEX 87.71Rank 35Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4738Patribots

Season APEX 142.7Event APEX 74.65Rank 43Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1148, 2429, 4079

/ 100 compat

Projected

376 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1148, 2429, 4079

Auto

72.1 19%

Teleop

185.6 49%

Endgame

120.4 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9084, 4, 4738

/ 100 compat

Projected

294.9 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9084, 4, 4738

Auto

35.5 12%

Teleop

186.3 65%

Endgame

66.4 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.31 · Blue 1.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score376pts

Blue projected score294.9pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 21%, blue 25%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 81.1
Score range: 236–435
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 524 vs event baseline 327.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

421.1Season APEX533.4

72.1Auto35.5

185.6Teleop186.3

120.4Endgame66.4

178Consistency169

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	46
teleop	104	217
endgame	52	65
foul	20	5
total	191	333

Result

Final score

191 – 333

Prediction missed · off by 111.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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