FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

418.12 – 417.22

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

235 – 270

Prediction missed · off by 165.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 623.9 ±9.3

1538The Holy Cows

A+

Season APEX 299.6Event APEX 248.52Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

687The Nerd Herd

Season APEX 227.6Event APEX 139.97Rank 24Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2404Team NEY Techs (TNT)

Season APEX 96.7Event APEX 29.63Rank 50Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 701.2 ±9.3

973Greybots

A+

Season APEX 316.4Event APEX 155.08Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7415Jaguar Robotics Sponsored By Feit Electric

Season APEX 284.3Event APEX 166.15Rank 8Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1197TorBots

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 95.99Rank 55Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1538, 687, 2404

/ 100 compat

Projected

418.1 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1538, 687, 2404

Auto

92.0 22%

Teleop

244.2 59%

Endgame

80.8 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 973, 7415, 1197

/ 100 compat

Projected

417.2 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 973, 7415, 1197

Auto

122.1 29%

Teleop

225.8 53%

Endgame

78.5 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.87 · Blue 1.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score418.1pts

Blue projected score417.2pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 34%, blue 29%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 0.9
Score range: 358–477
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 505 vs event baseline 328.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

623.9Season APEX701.2

92Auto122.1

244.2Teleop225.8

80.8Endgame78.5

116Consistency91

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	50	136
teleop	118	55
endgame	62	34
foul	5	45
total	235	270

Result

Final score

235 – 270

Prediction missed · off by 165.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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