FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

360.54 – 445.79

26%74%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

340 – 471

Prediction correct · off by 22.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 481.2 ±9.8

5805SMbly Required

Season APEX 112.6Event APEX 55.16Rank 45Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3408cyberCubs

Season APEX 135Event APEX 97.49Rank 30Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2102Team Paradox

Season APEX 233.6Event APEX 207.89Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 812.5 ±9.3

294Beach Cities Robotics

Season APEX 290.9Event APEX 153.11Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2658Σ-Motion

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX -8.42Rank 39Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4414HighTide

Season APEX 418.9Event APEX 301.1Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5805, 3408, 2102

/ 100 compat

Projected

360.5 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5805, 3408, 2102

Auto

76.2 23%

Teleop

174.0 51%

Endgame

87.7 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 294, 2658, 4414

/ 100 compat

Projected

445.8 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 294, 2658, 4414

Auto

133.1 30%

Teleop

223.7 50%

Endgame

92.8 21%

Strengths

· 4414 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.43 · Blue 2.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score360.5pts

Blue projected score445.8pts

Red win probability26%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 21%, blue 40%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -85.2
Score range: 302–505
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 811 vs event baseline 327.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

481.2Season APEX812.5

76.2Auto133.1

174Teleop223.7

87.7Endgame92.8

171Consistency133

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	145
teleop	189	261
endgame	104	40
foul	10	25
total	340	471

Result

Final score

340 – 471

Prediction correct · off by 22.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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