FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

314.47 – 352.74

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

407 – 398

Prediction missed · off by 68.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 706.6 ±9.3

599The Robodox

Season APEX 289.2Event APEX 86.77Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5474Clairemonster

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 136.08Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4201The Vitruvian Bots

Season APEX 253.3Event APEX 91.62Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 375.7 ±10.4

2984Vikings Robotics

Season APEX 127.9Event APEX 171.47Rank 27Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2485Overclocked

Season APEX 106.1Event APEX 88.44Rank 52Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3647Millennium Falcons

Season APEX 141.7Event APEX 92.83Rank 44Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 599, 5474, 4201

/ 100 compat

Projected

314.5 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 599, 5474, 4201

Auto

50.6 17%

Teleop

171.1 58%

Endgame

74.9 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 45%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2984, 2485, 3647

/ 100 compat

Projected

352.7 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2984, 2485, 3647

Auto

59.1 17%

Teleop

205.1 60%

Endgame

78.3 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 45%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.97 · Blue 2.1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score314.5pts

Blue projected score352.7pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 73%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 45%, blue 28%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -38.3
Score range: 255–412
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 805 vs event baseline 325.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

706.6Season APEX375.7

50.6Auto59.1

171.1Teleop205.1

74.9Endgame78.3

111Consistency91

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	65	41
teleop	255	237
endgame	87	120
foul	0	0
total	407	398

Result

Final score

407 – 398

Prediction missed · off by 68.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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