FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

432.49 – 144.84

97%3%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

432 – 116

Prediction correct · off by 14.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 676.6 ±9.3

4322Clockwork

Season APEX 220.5Event APEX 162.14Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9452LHS Steel Stingers

Season APEX 159.2Event APEX 110.64Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3255SuperNURDs

A+

Season APEX 296.9Event APEX 159.71Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 270.1 ±10.4

10586Unearthed

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX 45.65Rank 58Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3749Team Optix

Season APEX 90.8Event APEX 39.26Rank 57Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

812The Midnight Mechanics

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 59.93Rank 38Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4322, 9452, 3255

/ 100 compat

Projected

432.5 pts

~3.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4322, 9452, 3255

Auto

75.5 18%

Teleop

225.4 54%

Endgame

116.8 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 37%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10586, 3749, 812

/ 100 compat

Projected

144.8 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10586, 3749, 812

Auto

4.9 3%

Teleop

100.4 69%

Endgame

40.7 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 37%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.99 · Blue 0.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score432.5pts

Blue projected score144.8pts

Red win probability97%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 37%, blue 20%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 287.7
Score range: 86–491
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 548 vs event baseline 326.6.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

676.6Season APEX270.1

75.5Auto4.9

225.4Teleop100.4

116.8Endgame40.7

121Consistency155

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	16
teleop	215	75
endgame	152	25
foul	20	0
total	432	116

Result

Final score

432 – 116

Prediction correct · off by 14.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.