FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

235.6 – 309.45

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

217 – 143

Prediction missed · off by 92.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 528.7 ±9.8

7042Poly Rabbotics

Season APEX 117.1Event APEX 57.85Rank 26Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

589Falkon Robotics

Season APEX 186.8Event APEX 73.82Rank 56Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2637Phantom Catz

Season APEX 224.8Event APEX 103.93Rank 19Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 518.3 ±9.8

2710JetStream

Season APEX 101Event APEX 88.05Rank 54Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1160Titanium Robotics

Season APEX 141.6Event APEX 79.81Rank 41Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5199Robot Dolphins From Outer Space

Season APEX 275.7Event APEX 141.59Rank 22Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7042, 589, 2637

/ 100 compat

Projected

235.6 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7042, 589, 2637

Auto

28.6 13%

Teleop

142.4 63%

Endgame

56.2 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2710, 1160, 5199

/ 100 compat

Projected

309.5 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2710, 1160, 5199

Auto

40.3 13%

Teleop

212.1 68%

Endgame

59.4 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.38 · Blue 2.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score235.6pts

Blue projected score309.5pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 24%, blue 24%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -73.8
Score range: 177–368
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 360 vs event baseline 330.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

528.7Season APEX518.3

28.6Auto40.3

142.4Teleop212.1

56.2Endgame59.4

94Consistency113

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	62	51
teleop	98	65
endgame	52	17
foul	5	10
total	217	143

Result

Final score

217 – 143

Prediction missed · off by 92.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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