FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

440.14 – 321.45

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

520 – 342

Prediction correct · off by 50.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 725.6 ±9.3

4999Momentum

Season APEX 97.4Event APEX 54.16Rank 51Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3476Code Orange

A+

Season APEX 325.1Event APEX 220.59Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9408Warren Warbots

A+

Season APEX 303.1Event APEX 165.39Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 536.6 ±9.8

8119TigerBotics

Season APEX 239.4Event APEX 76.21Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5136MechaPirates

Season APEX 152.1Event APEX 67.63Rank 29Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

696Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 145.1Event APEX 177.61Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4999, 3476, 9408

/ 100 compat

Projected

440.1 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4999, 3476, 9408

Auto

88.1 21%

Teleop

251.3 59%

Endgame

84.9 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8119, 5136, 696

/ 100 compat

Projected

321.5 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8119, 5136, 696

Auto

76.7 24%

Teleop

163.1 51%

Endgame

79.0 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.52 · Blue 1.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score440.1pts

Blue projected score321.5pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 31%, blue 31%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 118.7
Score range: 262–499
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 862 vs event baseline 327.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

725.6Season APEX536.6

88.1Auto76.7

251.3Teleop163.1

84.9Endgame79

156Consistency219

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	85	34
teleop	292	161
endgame	143	137
foul	0	10
total	520	342

Result

Final score

520 – 342

Prediction correct · off by 50.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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