FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

293.91 – 345.9

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

189 – 272

Prediction correct · off by 89.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 481.5 ±9.8

1138Eagle Engineering

Season APEX 109.7Event APEX 87.68Rank 49Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5137Iron Kodiaks

Season APEX 144.2Event APEX 38.11Rank 37Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

687The Nerd Herd

Season APEX 227.6Event APEX 168.12Rank 24Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 356.9 ±10.4

4Team 4 ELEMENT

Season APEX 146.5Event APEX 90.99Rank 35Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4415EPIC Robotz

Season APEX 140.1Event APEX 171.77Rank 21Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4079Quantum Leap

Season APEX 70.3Event APEX 83.14Rank 47Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1138, 5137, 687

/ 100 compat

Projected

293.9 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1138, 5137, 687

Auto

55.9 19%

Teleop

183.1 61%

Endgame

60.5 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4, 4415, 4079

/ 100 compat

Projected

345.9 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4, 4415, 4079

Auto

51.5 16%

Teleop

163.9 50%

Endgame

113.1 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.56 · Blue 2.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score293.9pts

Blue projected score345.9pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 27%, blue 23%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -52
Score range: 234–406
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 461 vs event baseline 333.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

481.5Season APEX356.9

55.9Auto51.5

183.1Teleop163.9

60.5Endgame113.1

190Consistency215

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	36
teleop	87	138
endgame	60	98
foul	5	0
total	189	272

Result

Final score

189 – 272

Prediction correct · off by 89.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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