FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

216.96 – 337.77

18%82%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

208 – 444

Prediction correct · off by 57.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 381.8 ±10.4

5136MechaPirates

Season APEX 152.1Event APEX 98.23Rank 29Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5805SMbly Required

Season APEX 112.6Event APEX 48.7Rank 45Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7042Poly Rabbotics

Season APEX 117.1Event APEX 70.03Rank 26Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 524.8 ±9.8

1148Harvard Westlake Robotics

Season APEX 121.3Event APEX 96.94Rank 48Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

599The Robodox

Season APEX 289.2Event APEX 173.23Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6220The Golden Griffins

Season APEX 114.3Event APEX 67.6Rank 46Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5136, 5805, 7042

/ 100 compat

Projected

217 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5136, 5805, 7042

Auto

33.0 16%

Teleop

100.7 49%

Endgame

72.4 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1148, 599, 6220

/ 100 compat

Projected

337.8 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1148, 599, 6220

Auto

68.3 21%

Teleop

205.6 63%

Endgame

51.5 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.24 · Blue 2.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score217pts

Blue projected score337.8pts

Red win probability18%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 23%, blue 27%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -120.8
Score range: 155–400
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 652 vs event baseline 343.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

381.8Season APEX524.8

33Auto68.3

100.7Teleop205.6

72.4Endgame51.5

102Consistency136

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	66
teleop	111	252
endgame	57	111
foul	0	15
total	208	444

Result

Final score

208 – 444

Prediction correct · off by 57.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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