FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

142.13 – 307.09

11%89%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

193 – 368

Prediction correct · off by 55.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 357.2 ±10.4

1197TorBots

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 88.32Rank 55Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7157μBotics

Season APEX 114Event APEX 12.61Rank 42Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4738Patribots

Season APEX 142.7Event APEX 41.2Rank 43Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 532.4 ±9.8

3408cyberCubs

Season APEX 135Event APEX 81.15Rank 30Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3512Spartatroniks

Season APEX 257Event APEX 85.42Rank 16Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2584Flame of The West

Season APEX 140.4Event APEX 140.52Rank 20Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1197, 7157, 4738

/ 100 compat

Projected

142.1 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1197, 7157, 4738

Auto

36.8 27%

Teleop

42.6 31%

Endgame

58.0 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3408, 3512, 2584

/ 100 compat

Projected

307.1 pts

~2.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3408, 3512, 2584

Auto

58.2 19%

Teleop

150.7 50%

Endgame

94.4 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.03 · Blue 2.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score142.1pts

Blue projected score307.1pts

Red win probability11%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 23%, blue 30%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -165
Score range: 82–367
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 561 vs event baseline 335.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

357.2Season APEX532.4

36.8Auto58.2

42.6Teleop150.7

58Endgame94.4

176Consistency99

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	64
teleop	93	180
endgame	52	79
foul	0	45
total	193	368

Result

Final score

193 – 368

Prediction correct · off by 55.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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