FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

344.81 – 564.1

6%94%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

313 – 687

Prediction correct · off by 77.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 659.2 ±9.3

599The Robodox

Season APEX 289.2Event APEX 97.38Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2429The Blockheads

Season APEX 229.5Event APEX 177.64Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4123Tribe Robotics

Season APEX 140.5Event APEX 69.79Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 831.1 ±9.3

4414HighTide

Season APEX 418.9Event APEX 264.85Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7415Jaguar Robotics Sponsored By Feit Electric

Season APEX 284.3Event APEX 149.36Rank 8Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2984Vikings Robotics

Season APEX 127.9Event APEX 149.89Rank 27Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 599, 2429, 4123

/ 100 compat

Projected

344.8 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 599, 2429, 4123

Auto

82.1 26%

Teleop

163.9 51%

Endgame

75.7 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 79%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4414, 7415, 2984

/ 100 compat

Projected

564.1 pts

~2.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4414, 7415, 2984

Auto

137.6 25%

Teleop

303.5 55%

Endgame

114.9 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 79%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.26 · Blue 2.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score344.8pts

Blue projected score564.1pts

Red win probability6%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 79%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 33%, blue 39%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -219.3
Score range: 285–624
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1000 vs event baseline 330.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

659.2Season APEX831.1

82.1Auto137.6

163.9Teleop303.5

75.7Endgame114.9

207Consistency131

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	76	169
teleop	164	353
endgame	73	165
foul	0	0
total	313	687

Result

Final score

313 – 687

Prediction correct · off by 77.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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