FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

202.93 – 332.08

17%83%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

325 – 339

Prediction correct · off by 64.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 498.5 ±9.8

5805SMbly Required

Season APEX 112.6Event APEX 37.77Rank 45Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9084Octobots

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 90.83Rank 13Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3647Millennium Falcons

Season APEX 141.7Event APEX 74.33Rank 44Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 582.6 ±9.8

1388Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 206.4Event APEX 132.37Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5199Robot Dolphins From Outer Space

Season APEX 275.7Event APEX 124.59Rank 22Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

812The Midnight Mechanics

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 75.12Rank 38Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5805, 9084, 3647

/ 100 compat

Projected

202.9 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5805, 9084, 3647

Auto

31.6 15%

Teleop

116.9 57%

Endgame

56.6 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1388, 5199, 812

/ 100 compat

Projected

332.1 pts

~2.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1388, 5199, 812

Auto

63.7 21%

Teleop

159.4 52%

Endgame

85.2 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.17 · Blue 2.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score202.9pts

Blue projected score332.1pts

Red win probability17%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 22%, blue 32%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -129.1
Score range: 145–390
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 664 vs event baseline 324.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

498.5Season APEX582.6

31.6Auto63.7

116.9Teleop159.4

56.6Endgame85.2

168Consistency169

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	67	41
teleop	194	177
endgame	59	106
foul	5	15
total	325	339

Result

Final score

325 – 339

Prediction correct · off by 64.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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