FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

271.26 – 335.33

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

238 – 323

Prediction correct · off by 22.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 445.2 ±9.8

10586Unearthed

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX 71.84Rank 58Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2637Phantom Catz

Season APEX 224.8Event APEX 102.54Rank 19Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1160Titanium Robotics

Season APEX 141.6Event APEX 96.88Rank 41Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 656.8 ±9.3

9408Warren Warbots

A+

Season APEX 303.1Event APEX 149.84Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8119TigerBotics

Season APEX 239.4Event APEX 110.43Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6220The Golden Griffins

Season APEX 114.3Event APEX 75.06Rank 46Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10586, 2637, 1160

/ 100 compat

Projected

271.3 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10586, 2637, 1160

Auto

39.8 14%

Teleop

188.0 67%

Endgame

51.6 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9408, 8119, 6220

/ 100 compat

Projected

335.3 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9408, 8119, 6220

Auto

39.8 13%

Teleop

201.9 63%

Endgame

76.4 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.42 · Blue 2.31

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score271.3pts

Blue projected score335.3pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 28%, blue 22%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -64.1
Score range: 212–394
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 561 vs event baseline 325.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

445.2Season APEX656.8

39.8Auto39.8

188Teleop201.9

51.6Endgame76.4

76Consistency211

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	68
teleop	137	177
endgame	59	78
foul	0	0
total	238	323

Result

Final score

238 – 323

Prediction correct · off by 22.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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