FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

493.19 – 153.31

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

382 – 126

Prediction correct · off by 69.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 594.5 ±9.8

6695GalvaKnights

Season APEX 133Event APEX 130.71Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

696Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 145.1Event APEX 207.75Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

973Greybots

A+

Season APEX 316.4Event APEX 154.73Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 442.7 ±9.8

2658Σ-Motion

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 20.58Rank 39Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4201The Vitruvian Bots

Season APEX 253.3Event APEX 79.15Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

968RAWC (Robotics Alliance Of West Covina)

Season APEX 86.7Event APEX 53.58Rank 59Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6695, 696, 973

/ 100 compat

Projected

493.2 pts

~3.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6695, 696, 973

Auto

97.7 20%

Teleop

256.7 52%

Endgame

143.2 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 41%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2658, 4201, 968

/ 100 compat

Projected

153.3 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2658, 4201, 968

Auto

42.3 30%

Teleop

40.3 29%

Endgame

56.7 41%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 41%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 3.06 · Blue 0.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score493.2pts

Blue projected score153.3pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 41%, blue 22%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 339.9
Score range: 94–552
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 508 vs event baseline 327.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

594.5Season APEX442.7

97.7Auto42.3

256.7Teleop40.3

143.2Endgame56.7

182Consistency133

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	99	30
teleop	204	43
endgame	79	38
foul	0	15
total	382	126

Result

Final score

382 – 126

Prediction correct · off by 69.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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