FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

256.21 – 289.99

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

250 – 240

Prediction missed · off by 28.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 317.2 ±10.4

3749Team Optix

Season APEX 90.8Event APEX 40.9Rank 57Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1148Harvard Westlake Robotics

Season APEX 121.3Event APEX 167.14Rank 48Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3925Ventura Robotics

Season APEX 105.1Event APEX 48.17Rank 34Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 758.9 ±8.7

11024HYPERNOVA

Season APEX 151.4Event APEX 96.05Rank 60Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2659RoboWarriors

A+

Season APEX 298.8Event APEX 132.03Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3128The Aluminum Narwhals

A+

Season APEX 308.7Event APEX 61.91Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3749, 1148, 3925

/ 100 compat

Projected

256.2 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3749, 1148, 3925

Auto

18.2 8%

Teleop

157.1 66%

Endgame

63.1 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11024, 2659, 3128

/ 100 compat

Projected

290 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11024, 2659, 3128

Auto

40.5 15%

Teleop

132.9 48%

Endgame

103.0 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.49 · Blue 2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score256.2pts

Blue projected score290pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 24%, blue 27%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -33.8
Score range: 196–350
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 490 vs event baseline 330.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

317.2Season APEX758.9

18.2Auto40.5

157.1Teleop132.9

63.1Endgame103

69Consistency185

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	36
teleop	143	137
endgame	70	62
foul	15	5
total	250	240

Result

Final score

250 – 240

Prediction missed · off by 28.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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