FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

137.35 – 385.62

4%96%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

188 – 312

Prediction correct · off by 62.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 346.2 ±10.4

4999Momentum

Season APEX 97.4Event APEX 61.58Rank 51Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2404Team NEY Techs (TNT)

Season APEX 96.7Event APEX 30.6Rank 50Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5136MechaPirates

Season APEX 152.1Event APEX 45.17Rank 29Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 578.1 ±9.8

5474Clairemonster

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 133.65Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3255SuperNURDs

A+

Season APEX 296.9Event APEX 165.04Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7042Poly Rabbotics

Season APEX 117.1Event APEX 86.93Rank 26Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4999, 2404, 5136

/ 100 compat

Projected

137.4 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4999, 2404, 5136

Auto

42.2 29%

Teleop

56.8 39%

Endgame

46.7 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5474, 3255, 7042

/ 100 compat

Projected

385.6 pts

~3.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5474, 3255, 7042

Auto

48.3 13%

Teleop

211.8 56%

Endgame

119.6 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.91 · Blue 3.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score137.4pts

Blue projected score385.6pts

Red win probability4%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 72%

Supercharged bonusred 28%, blue 37%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -248.3
Score range: 77–446
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 500 vs event baseline 333.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

346.2Season APEX578.1

42.2Auto48.3

56.8Teleop211.8

46.7Endgame119.6

159Consistency152

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	60
teleop	97	158
endgame	62	84
foul	0	10
total	188	312

Result

Final score

188 – 312

Prediction correct · off by 62.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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