FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

367.09 – 308.5

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

440 – 435

Prediction correct · off by 99.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 631.9 ±9.8

4738Patribots

Season APEX 142.7Event APEX 43.38Rank 43Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4079Quantum Leap

Season APEX 70.3Event APEX 80.98Rank 47Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4414HighTide

Season APEX 418.9Event APEX 242.73Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 461.1 ±9.8

1197TorBots

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 60.33Rank 55Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4322Clockwork

Season APEX 220.5Event APEX 102.75Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4415EPIC Robotz

Season APEX 140.1Event APEX 145.42Rank 21Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4738, 4079, 4414

/ 100 compat

Projected

367.1 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4738, 4079, 4414

Auto

79.6 22%

Teleop

180.2 49%

Endgame

107.9 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1197, 4322, 4415

/ 100 compat

Projected

308.5 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1197, 4322, 4415

Auto

45.8 15%

Teleop

157.8 52%

Endgame

101.9 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.27 · Blue 1.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score367.1pts

Blue projected score308.5pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 26%, blue 30%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 58.6
Score range: 250–426
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 875 vs event baseline 329.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

631.9Season APEX461.1

79.6Auto45.8

180.2Teleop157.8

107.9Endgame101.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	128	93
teleop	186	173
endgame	121	154
foul	5	15
total	440	435

Result

Final score

440 – 435

Prediction correct · off by 99.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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