FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

442.3 – 433.92

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

382 – 517

Prediction missed · off by 71.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 656 ±9.8

9408Warren Warbots

A+

Season APEX 303.1Event APEX 137.74Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1388Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 206.4Event APEX 191.01Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4Team 4 ELEMENT

Season APEX 146.5Event APEX 113.55Rank 35Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 736.2 ±9.3

3128The Aluminum Narwhals

A+

Season APEX 308.7Event APEX 133.56Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2984Vikings Robotics

Season APEX 127.9Event APEX 50.97Rank 27Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1538The Holy Cows

A+

Season APEX 299.6Event APEX 249.39Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9408, 1388, 4

/ 100 compat

Projected

442.3 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9408, 1388, 4

Auto

53.2 13%

Teleop

244.4 58%

Endgame

126.1 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3128, 2984, 1538

/ 100 compat

Projected

433.9 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3128, 2984, 1538

Auto

66.8 16%

Teleop

241.6 57%

Endgame

116.7 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.13 · Blue 1.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score442.3pts

Blue projected score433.9pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 72%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 34%, blue 36%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 8.4
Score range: 372–504
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 899 vs event baseline 343.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

656Season APEX736.2

53.2Auto66.8

244.4Teleop241.6

126.1Endgame116.7

139Consistency49

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	56	70
teleop	170	315
endgame	91	112
foul	65	20
total	382	517

Result

Final score

382 – 517

Prediction missed · off by 71.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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