FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

440.34 – 382.82

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

317 – 297

Prediction correct · off by 104.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 606.8 ±9.3

687The Nerd Herd

Season APEX 227.6Event APEX 224.27Rank 24Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9084Octobots

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 112.08Rank 13Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3408cyberCubs

Season APEX 135Event APEX 103.99Rank 30Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 517.6 ±9.8

812The Midnight Mechanics

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 105.45Rank 38Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

599The Robodox

Season APEX 289.2Event APEX 117.49Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2984Vikings Robotics

Season APEX 127.9Event APEX 159.88Rank 27Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 687, 9084, 3408

/ 100 compat

Projected

440.3 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 687, 9084, 3408

Auto

82.2 19%

Teleop

238.3 56%

Endgame

104.4 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 812, 599, 2984

/ 100 compat

Projected

382.8 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 812, 599, 2984

Auto

82.1 22%

Teleop

204.5 54%

Endgame

92.6 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.2 · Blue 1.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score440.3pts

Blue projected score382.8pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 26%, blue 32%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 57.5
Score range: 324–499
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 614 vs event baseline 330.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

606.8Season APEX517.6

82.2Auto82.1

238.3Teleop204.5

104.4Endgame92.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	90	49
teleop	180	166
endgame	47	67
foul	0	15
total	317	297

Result

Final score

317 – 297

Prediction correct · off by 104.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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