FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

220.31 – 197.84

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

367 – 265

Prediction correct · off by 106.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 551.8 ±9.3

2102Team Paradox

Season APEX 233.6Event APEX 93.4Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10586Unearthed

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX 42.05Rank 58Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8119TigerBotics

Season APEX 239.4Event APEX 84.86Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 487.7 ±9.8

2429The Blockheads

Season APEX 229.5Event APEX 139.83Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5137Iron Kodiaks

Season APEX 144.2Event APEX 80.69Rank 37Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7157μBotics

Season APEX 114Event APEX -22.68Rank 42Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2102, 10586, 8119

/ 100 compat

Projected

220.3 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2102, 10586, 8119

Auto

32.7 15%

Teleop

107.2 49%

Endgame

80.0 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2429, 5137, 7157

/ 100 compat

Projected

197.8 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2429, 5137, 7157

Auto

50.6 26%

Teleop

81.8 42%

Endgame

61.4 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.97 · Blue 1.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score220.3pts

Blue projected score197.8pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 24%, blue 26%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 22.5
Score range: 138–280
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 632 vs event baseline 331.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

551.8Season APEX487.7

32.7Auto50.6

107.2Teleop81.8

80Endgame61.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	69	65
teleop	193	118
endgame	105	82
foul	0	0
total	367	265

Result

Final score

367 – 265

Prediction correct · off by 106.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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