FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

247.95 – 344.66

23%77%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

259 – 385

Prediction correct · off by 25.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 369.9 ±10.4

9452LHS Steel Stingers

Season APEX 159.2Event APEX 56.43Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1138Eagle Engineering

Season APEX 109.7Event APEX 95.18Rank 49Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2710JetStream

Season APEX 101Event APEX 96.34Rank 54Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 624.1 ±9.8

1160Titanium Robotics

Season APEX 141.6Event APEX 101.07Rank 41Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6995NOMAD

Season APEX 191.6Event APEX 105.18Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

294Beach Cities Robotics

Season APEX 290.9Event APEX 138.41Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9452, 1138, 2710

/ 100 compat

Projected

248 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9452, 1138, 2710

Auto

34.6 15%

Teleop

135.1 57%

Endgame

66.6 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1160, 6995, 294

/ 100 compat

Projected

344.7 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1160, 6995, 294

Auto

66.2 19%

Teleop

176.9 51%

Endgame

100.4 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.37 · Blue 2.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score248pts

Blue projected score344.7pts

Red win probability23%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 23%, blue 36%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -96.7
Score range: 188–405
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 644 vs event baseline 331.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

369.9Season APEX624.1

34.6Auto66.2

135.1Teleop176.9

66.6Endgame100.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	51
teleop	204	268
endgame	42	66
foul	0	0
total	259	385

Result

Final score

259 – 385

Prediction correct · off by 25.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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