FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

311.72 – 504.33

8%92%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

253 – 612

Prediction correct · off by 83.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 502.9 ±9.8

968RAWC (Robotics Alliance Of West Covina)

Season APEX 86.7Event APEX 84.65Rank 59Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4123Tribe Robotics

Season APEX 140.5Event APEX 93.87Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5199Robot Dolphins From Outer Space

Season APEX 275.7Event APEX 133.2Rank 22Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 878 ±8.7

4201The Vitruvian Bots

Season APEX 253.3Event APEX 84.48Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1538The Holy Cows

A+

Season APEX 299.6Event APEX 219.99Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3476Code Orange

A+

Season APEX 325.1Event APEX 199.86Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 968, 4123, 5199

/ 100 compat

Projected

311.7 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 968, 4123, 5199

Auto

82.9 28%

Teleop

146.5 50%

Endgame

63.9 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4201, 1538, 3476

/ 100 compat

Projected

504.3 pts

~2.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4201, 1538, 3476

Auto

96.9 20%

Teleop

250.8 51%

Endgame

145.1 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.97 · Blue 2.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score311.7pts

Blue projected score504.3pts

Red win probability8%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 24%, blue 41%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -192.6
Score range: 253–563
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 865 vs event baseline 327.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

502.9Season APEX878

82.9Auto96.9

146.5Teleop250.8

63.9Endgame145.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	52	122
teleop	139	359
endgame	42	106
foul	20	25
total	253	612

Result

Final score

253 – 612

Prediction correct · off by 83.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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