FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

312.36 – 171.78

85%15%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

454 – 112

Prediction correct · off by 100.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 603.3 ±9.8

2584Flame of The West

Season APEX 140.4Event APEX 116.6Rank 20Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

973Greybots

A+

Season APEX 316.4Event APEX 107.2Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4Team 4 ELEMENT

Season APEX 146.5Event APEX 88.56Rank 35Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 367.6 ±10.4

589Falkon Robotics

Season APEX 186.8Event APEX 89.91Rank 56Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3309Friarbots

Season APEX 90Event APEX 37.02Rank 53Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3749Team Optix

Season APEX 90.8Event APEX 44.85Rank 57Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2584, 973, 4

/ 100 compat

Projected

312.4 pts

~2.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2584, 973, 4

Auto

61.5 21%

Teleop

164.5 57%

Endgame

64.3 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 589, 3309, 3749

/ 100 compat

Projected

171.8 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 589, 3309, 3749

Auto

43.1 26%

Teleop

81.2 49%

Endgame

42.9 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.74 · Blue 0.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score312.4pts

Blue projected score171.8pts

Red win probability85%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 34%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 140.6
Score range: 113–371
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 566 vs event baseline 329.2.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

603.3Season APEX367.6

61.5Auto43.1

164.5Teleop81.2

64.3Endgame42.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	85	22
teleop	272	68
endgame	97	22
foul	0	0
total	454	112

Result

Final score

454 – 112

Prediction correct · off by 100.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.