FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

531.41 – 118.41

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

491 – 174

Prediction correct · off by 48 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 565.2 ±9.8

1148Harvard Westlake Robotics

Season APEX 121.3Event APEX 184.29Rank 48Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

696Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 145.1Event APEX 207.52Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2659RoboWarriors

A+

Season APEX 298.8Event APEX 139.6Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 302.3 ±10.4

2485Overclocked

Season APEX 106.1Event APEX 35.59Rank 52Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2404Team NEY Techs (TNT)

Season APEX 96.7Event APEX 6.93Rank 50Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4419Team Rewind

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 75.89Rank 40Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1148, 696, 2659

/ 100 compat

Projected

531.4 pts

~3.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1148, 696, 2659

Auto

111.9 21%

Teleop

267.3 51%

Endgame

148.4 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 37%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2485, 2404, 4419

/ 100 compat

Projected

118.4 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2485, 2404, 4419

Auto

9.6 8%

Teleop

56.1 50%

Endgame

47.5 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 37%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.95 · Blue 0.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score531.4pts

Blue projected score118.4pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 37%, blue 24%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 413
Score range: 59–590
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 665 vs event baseline 329.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

565.2Season APEX302.3

111.9Auto9.6

267.3Teleop56.1

148.4Endgame47.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	78	28
teleop	303	117
endgame	105	24
foul	5	5
total	491	174

Result

Final score

491 – 174

Prediction correct · off by 48 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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