FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

258.19 – 290.96

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

175 – 196

Prediction correct · off by 89.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 638.6 ±9.3

3128The Aluminum Narwhals

A+

Season APEX 308.7Event APEX 97.93Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3925Ventura Robotics

Season APEX 105.1Event APEX 61.37Rank 34Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2637Phantom Catz

Season APEX 224.8Event APEX 98.89Rank 19Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 539.1 ±9.8

7415Jaguar Robotics Sponsored By Feit Electric

Season APEX 284.3Event APEX 175Rank 8Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2658Σ-Motion

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 53.36Rank 39Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5136MechaPirates

Season APEX 152.1Event APEX 62.6Rank 29Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3128, 3925, 2637

/ 100 compat

Projected

258.2 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3128, 3925, 2637

Auto

40.1 16%

Teleop

187.5 75%

Endgame

23.8 9%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7415, 2658, 5136

/ 100 compat

Projected

291 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7415, 2658, 5136

Auto

76.6 26%

Teleop

157.9 54%

Endgame

55.7 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.61 · Blue 2.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score258.2pts

Blue projected score291pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 31%, blue 26%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -32.8
Score range: 198–351
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 371 vs event baseline 335.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

638.6Season APEX539.1

40.1Auto76.6

187.5Teleop157.9

23.8Endgame55.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	82
teleop	75	91
endgame	42	23
foul	25	0
total	175	196

Result

Final score

175 – 196

Prediction correct · off by 89.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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