FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

314.87 – 259.85

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

292 – 295

Prediction missed · off by 29 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 508.6 ±9.8

3255SuperNURDs

A+

Season APEX 296.9Event APEX 156.47Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6220The Golden Griffins

Season APEX 114.3Event APEX 77.96Rank 46Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4999Momentum

Season APEX 97.4Event APEX 80.44Rank 51Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 409.7 ±10.4

5474Clairemonster

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 129.53Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6695GalvaKnights

Season APEX 133Event APEX 115.74Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5805SMbly Required

Season APEX 112.6Event APEX 14.58Rank 45Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3255, 6220, 4999

/ 100 compat

Projected

314.9 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3255, 6220, 4999

Auto

49.8 16%

Teleop

179.8 57%

Endgame

85.7 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5474, 6695, 5805

/ 100 compat

Projected

259.8 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5474, 6695, 5805

Auto

40.7 16%

Teleop

158.1 62%

Endgame

57.4 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.23 · Blue 1.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score314.9pts

Blue projected score259.8pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 25%, blue 31%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 55
Score range: 199–376
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 587 vs event baseline 337.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

508.6Season APEX409.7

49.8Auto40.7

179.8Teleop158.1

85.7Endgame57.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	52	32
teleop	182	161
endgame	58	102
foul	0	0
total	292	295

Result

Final score

292 – 295

Prediction missed · off by 29 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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