Qualification · Qualification 20
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
197.08 – 229.99
40%60%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
402 – 315
Prediction missed · off by 145 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 484.8 ±9.8
Season APEX 140.1Event APEX 87.31Rank 21Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 52.54Rank 13Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 57.23Rank 38Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 689.5 ±9.3
Season APEX 239.4Event APEX 87.31Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 290.9Event APEX 142.87Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 159.2Event APEX -0.19Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 4415, 9084, 812
45
/ 100 compatProjected
197.1 pts
~1.8 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 4415, 9084, 812
Auto
4.3 2%
Teleop
129.0 68%
Endgame
55.6 29%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 68%
Supercharged: 26%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 8119, 294, 9452
50
/ 100 compatProjected
230 pts
~2.2 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 8119, 294, 9452
Auto
13.9 6%
Teleop
142.9 63%
Endgame
69.9 31%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 68%
Supercharged: 26%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.76 · Blue 2.22
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score197.1pts
Blue projected score230pts
Red win probability40%
Event bonus sample270alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 68%, blue 67%
Supercharged bonusred 26%, blue 33%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -32.9
- Score range
- 137–290
- Upset likelihood
- 40%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
484.8Season APEX689.5
4.3Auto13.9
129Teleop142.9
55.6Endgame69.9
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 43 | 46 |
| teleop | 232 | 190 |
| endgame | 127 | 79 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 402 | 315 |
Result
Final score
402 – 315
Prediction missed · off by 145 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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