FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

204.29 – 191.7

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

410 – 291

Prediction correct · off by 152.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 512.3 ±9.8

1197TorBots

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 7.29Rank 55Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

968RAWC (Robotics Alliance Of West Covina)

Season APEX 86.7Event APEX 27.07Rank 59Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3476Code Orange

A+

Season APEX 325.1Event APEX 169.93Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 520.5 ±9.8

5137Iron Kodiaks

Season APEX 144.2Event APEX 67.24Rank 37Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2102Team Paradox

Season APEX 233.6Event APEX 72.49Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4738Patribots

Season APEX 142.7Event APEX 51.97Rank 43Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1197, 968, 3476

/ 100 compat

Projected

204.3 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1197, 968, 3476

Auto

38.9 20%

Teleop

113.9 58%

Endgame

43.7 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5137, 2102, 4738

/ 100 compat

Projected

191.7 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5137, 2102, 4738

Auto

7.6 4%

Teleop

122.4 66%

Endgame

55.0 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.78 · Blue 1.89

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score204.3pts

Blue projected score191.7pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 22%, blue 26%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 12.6
Score range: 132–264
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 701 vs event baseline 334.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

512.3Season APEX520.5

38.9Auto7.6

113.9Teleop122.4

43.7Endgame55

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	124	56
teleop	178	144
endgame	98	86
foul	10	5
total	410	291

Result

Final score

410 – 291

Prediction correct · off by 152.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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