FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

112.58 – 356.33

5%95%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

305 – 200

Prediction missed · off by 174.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 516.1 ±9.8

3309Friarbots

Season APEX 90Event APEX -10.38Rank 53Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

973Greybots

A+

Season APEX 316.4Event APEX 74.91Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1138Eagle Engineering

Season APEX 109.7Event APEX 48.05Rank 49Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 678.9 ±9.3

7157μBotics

Season APEX 114Event APEX 48.05Rank 42Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5199Robot Dolphins From Outer Space

Season APEX 275.7Event APEX 161.38Rank 22Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

599The Robodox

Season APEX 289.2Event APEX 146.9Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3309, 973, 1138

/ 100 compat

Projected

112.6 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3309, 973, 1138

Auto

1.5 1%

Teleop

57.5 51%

Endgame

52.9 47%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7157, 5199, 599

/ 100 compat

Projected

356.3 pts

~2.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7157, 5199, 599

Auto

62.2 18%

Teleop

197.7 57%

Endgame

88.5 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.94 · Blue 2.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score112.6pts

Blue projected score356.3pts

Red win probability5%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 37%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -243.7
Score range: 52–417
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 505 vs event baseline 339.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

516.1Season APEX678.9

1.5Auto62.2

57.5Teleop197.7

52.9Endgame88.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	95	77
teleop	128	93
endgame	82	30
foul	0	0
total	305	200

Result

Final score

305 – 200

Prediction missed · off by 174.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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