FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

262.14 – 226.29

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

273 – 313

Prediction missed · off by 48.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 306.2 ±10.4

10586Unearthed

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX 47.31Rank 58Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2485Overclocked

Season APEX 106.1Event APEX 66.57Rank 52Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1148Harvard Westlake Robotics

Season APEX 121.3Event APEX 148.26Rank 48Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 462.3 ±10.4

4123Tribe Robotics

Season APEX 140.5Event APEX 84.57Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

589Falkon Robotics

Season APEX 186.8Event APEX 84.29Rank 56Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3408cyberCubs

Season APEX 135Event APEX 57.43Rank 30Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10586, 2485, 1148

/ 100 compat

Projected

262.1 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10586, 2485, 1148

Auto

42.3 16%

Teleop

155.2 60%

Endgame

60.2 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4123, 589, 3408

/ 100 compat

Projected

226.3 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4123, 589, 3408

Auto

22.3 11%

Teleop

123.1 58%

Endgame

66.6 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.94 · Blue 1.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score262.1pts

Blue projected score226.3pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 24%, blue 19%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 35.8
Score range: 164–324
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 586 vs event baseline 342.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

306.2Season APEX462.3

42.3Auto22.3

155.2Teleop123.1

60.2Endgame66.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	51
teleop	181	164
endgame	72	63
foul	0	35
total	273	313

Result

Final score

273 – 313

Prediction missed · off by 48.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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