FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

217.79 – 296.24

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

551 – 334

Prediction missed · off by 185.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 700.9 ±9.8

4414HighTide

Season APEX 418.9Event APEX 155.37Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2584Flame of The West

Season APEX 140.4Event APEX 24.42Rank 20Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1160Titanium Robotics

Season APEX 141.6Event APEX 38Rank 41Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 495.1 ±9.8

2404Team NEY Techs (TNT)

Season APEX 96.7Event APEX 38Rank 50Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4201The Vitruvian Bots

Season APEX 253.3Event APEX 98.86Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

696Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 145.1Event APEX 159.38Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4414, 2584, 1160

/ 100 compat

Projected

217.8 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4414, 2584, 1160

Auto

59.6 28%

Teleop

105.9 50%

Endgame

48.0 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 40%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2404, 4201, 696

/ 100 compat

Projected

296.2 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2404, 4201, 696

Auto

52.0 18%

Teleop

154.8 53%

Endgame

88.0 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 40%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.63 · Blue 2.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score217.8pts

Blue projected score296.2pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 40%, blue 35%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -78.5
Score range: 158–356
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 885 vs event baseline 335.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

700.9Season APEX495.1

59.6Auto52

105.9Teleop154.8

48Endgame88

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	118	76
teleop	308	121
endgame	125	127
foul	0	10
total	551	334

Result

Final score

551 – 334

Prediction missed · off by 185.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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