FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

192.28 – 323.01

16%84%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

316 – 443

Prediction correct · off by 121.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 433.2 ±9.8

2429The Blockheads

Season APEX 229.5Event APEX 94Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2710JetStream

Season APEX 101Event APEX 54.57Rank 54Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2658Σ-Motion

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 43.71Rank 39Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 496.8 ±9.8

3925Ventura Robotics

Season APEX 105.1Event APEX 54.57Rank 34Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

687The Nerd Herd

Season APEX 227.6Event APEX 174.44Rank 24Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5474Clairemonster

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 94Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2429, 2710, 2658

/ 100 compat

Projected

192.3 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2429, 2710, 2658

Auto

40.4 22%

Teleop

105.4 57%

Endgame

39.2 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3925, 687, 5474

/ 100 compat

Projected

323 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3925, 687, 5474

Auto

67.6 21%

Teleop

177.6 56%

Endgame

70.5 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.22 · Blue 2.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score192.3pts

Blue projected score323pts

Red win probability16%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 33%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -130.7
Score range: 132–383
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 759 vs event baseline 332.4.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

433.2Season APEX496.8

40.4Auto67.6

105.4Teleop177.6

39.2Endgame70.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	75	76
teleop	144	262
endgame	92	85
foul	5	20
total	316	443

Result

Final score

316 – 443

Prediction correct · off by 121.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.