FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

370 – 356.94

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

391 – 162

Prediction correct · off by 108 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 651.3 ±9.3

4Team 4 ELEMENT

Season APEX 146.5Event APEX 104.9Rank 35Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4322Clockwork

Season APEX 220.5Event APEX 106.24Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7415Jaguar Robotics Sponsored By Feit Electric

Season APEX 284.3Event APEX 158.86Rank 8Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 483.9 ±9.8

5805SMbly Required

Season APEX 112.6Event APEX 83.79Rank 45Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3512Spartatroniks

Season APEX 257Event APEX 146.29Rank 16Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6220The Golden Griffins

Season APEX 114.3Event APEX 126.86Rank 46Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4, 4322, 7415

/ 100 compat

Projected

370 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4, 4322, 7415

Auto

65.6 19%

Teleop

183.9 55%

Endgame

87.9 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5805, 3512, 6220

/ 100 compat

Projected

356.9 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5805, 3512, 6220

Auto

72.0 20%

Teleop

196.6 56%

Endgame

82.9 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2 · Blue 1.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score370pts

Blue projected score356.9pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 30%, blue 19%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 13.1
Score range: 296–431
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 553 vs event baseline 336.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

651.3Season APEX483.9

65.6Auto72

183.9Teleop196.6

87.9Endgame82.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	61	35
teleop	213	69
endgame	87	53
foul	30	5
total	391	162

Result

Final score

391 – 162

Prediction correct · off by 108 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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