FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

330.18 – 391.16

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

149 – 369

Prediction correct · off by 101.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 307.4 ±10.4

3749Team Optix

Season APEX 90.8Event APEX 138.29Rank 57Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4419Team Rewind

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 133.23Rank 40Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7042Poly Rabbotics

Season APEX 117.1Event APEX 58.66Rank 26Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 660.9 ±9.3

2637Phantom Catz

Season APEX 224.8Event APEX 172Rank 19Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9408Warren Warbots

A+

Season APEX 303.1Event APEX 101.41Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6695GalvaKnights

Season APEX 133Event APEX 117.75Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3749, 4419, 7042

/ 100 compat

Projected

330.2 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3749, 4419, 7042

Auto

69.1 21%

Teleop

189.4 58%

Endgame

70.1 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2637, 9408, 6695

/ 100 compat

Projected

391.2 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2637, 9408, 6695

Auto

64.8 18%

Teleop

206.8 57%

Endgame

93.9 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.4 · Blue 2.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score330.2pts

Blue projected score391.2pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 22%, blue 40%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -61
Score range: 268–453
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 518 vs event baseline 343.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

307.4Season APEX660.9

69.1Auto64.8

189.4Teleop206.8

70.1Endgame93.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	57
teleop	79	251
endgame	50	61
foul	5	0
total	149	369

Result

Final score

149 – 369

Prediction correct · off by 101.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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