FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 120

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

149.57 – 436.72

3%97%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

93 – 396

Prediction correct · off by 48.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 360.7 ±9.8

2404Team NEY Techs (TNT)

Season APEX 96.7Event APEX 57.63Rank 50Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11024HYPERNOVA

Season APEX 151.4Event APEX 36.46Rank 60Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5805SMbly Required

Season APEX 112.6Event APEX 55.48Rank 45Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 711.7 ±8.7

4201The Vitruvian Bots

Season APEX 253.3Event APEX 139.57Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2637Phantom Catz

Season APEX 224.8Event APEX 104.39Rank 19Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2102Team Paradox

Season APEX 233.6Event APEX 192.76Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2404, 11024, 5805

/ 100 compat

Projected

149.6 pts

~0.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2404, 11024, 5805

Auto

24.3 18%

Teleop

62.2 45%

Endgame

51.3 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4201, 2637, 2102

/ 100 compat

Projected

436.7 pts

~3.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4201, 2637, 2102

Auto

76.3 18%

Teleop

216.5 52%

Endgame

123.0 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.73 · Blue 2.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score149.6pts

Blue projected score436.7pts

Red win probability3%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 37%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -287.2
Score range: 91–496
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 489 vs event baseline 327.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

360.7Season APEX711.7

24.3Auto76.3

62.2Teleop216.5

51.3Endgame123

109Consistency70

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	56
teleop	39	206
endgame	32	119
foul	0	15
total	93	396

Result

Final score

93 – 396

Prediction correct · off by 48.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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