FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

256.24 – 344.95

25%75%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

436 – 262

Prediction missed · off by 131.4 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 538.7 ±9.8

4999Momentum

Season APEX 97.4Event APEX 53.43Rank 51Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3647Millennium Falcons

Season APEX 141.7Event APEX 62.29Rank 44Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1538The Holy Cows

A+

Season APEX 299.6Event APEX 140.52Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 570.6 ±9.8

3128The Aluminum Narwhals

A+

Season APEX 308.7Event APEX 140.52Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6995NOMAD

Season APEX 191.6Event APEX 111.37Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4079Quantum Leap

Season APEX 70.3Event APEX 93.06Rank 47Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4999, 3647, 1538

/ 100 compat

Projected

256.2 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4999, 3647, 1538

Auto

35.1 14%

Teleop

155.3 63%

Endgame

55.1 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3128, 6995, 4079

/ 100 compat

Projected

345 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3128, 6995, 4079

Auto

47.3 14%

Teleop

190.6 58%

Endgame

93.0 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.42 · Blue 2.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score256.2pts

Blue projected score345pts

Red win probability25%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 32%, blue 24%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -88.7
Score range: 194–407
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 698 vs event baseline 342.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

538.7Season APEX570.6

35.1Auto47.3

155.3Teleop190.6

55.1Endgame93

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	59	58
teleop	279	134
endgame	98	70
foul	0	0
total	436	262

Result

Final score

436 – 262

Prediction missed · off by 131.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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