FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 119

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

326.9 – 71.43

96%4%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

255 – 70

Prediction correct · off by 36.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 521.6 ±9.8

1160Titanium Robotics

Season APEX 141.6Event APEX 71.73Rank 41Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3749Team Optix

Season APEX 90.8Event APEX 73.97Rank 57Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

599The Robodox

Season APEX 289.2Event APEX 181.2Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 246.5 ±10.4

4999Momentum

Season APEX 97.4Event APEX 45.6Rank 51Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4079Quantum Leap

Season APEX 70.3Event APEX 19.16Rank 47Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10586Unearthed

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX 6.67Rank 58Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1160, 3749, 599

/ 100 compat

Projected

326.9 pts

~2.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1160, 3749, 599

Auto

55.2 17%

Teleop

211.5 65%

Endgame

59.0 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4999, 4079, 10586

/ 100 compat

Projected

71.4 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4999, 4079, 10586

Auto

28.1 38%

Teleop

20.3 27%

Endgame

26.3 35%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.8 · Blue 0.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score326.9pts

Blue projected score71.4pts

Red win probability96%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 30%, blue 19%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 255.5
Score range: 12–386
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 325 vs event baseline 328.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

521.6Season APEX246.5

55.2Auto28.1

211.5Teleop20.3

59Endgame26.3

93Consistency111

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	65	22
teleop	126	27
endgame	49	21
foul	15	0
total	255	70

Result

Final score

255 – 70

Prediction correct · off by 36.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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