FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 118

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

161.98 – 338.62

10%90%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

298 – 328

Prediction correct · off by 73.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 495.5 ±9.8

5199Robot Dolphins From Outer Space

Season APEX 275.7Event APEX 105.29Rank 22Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7042Poly Rabbotics

Season APEX 117.1Event APEX 56.89Rank 26Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2658Σ-Motion

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX -0.2Rank 39Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 567.1 ±9.8

4738Patribots

Season APEX 142.7Event APEX 74.15Rank 43Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4415EPIC Robotz

Season APEX 140.1Event APEX 112.15Rank 21Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7415Jaguar Robotics Sponsored By Feit Electric

Season APEX 284.3Event APEX 152.32Rank 8Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5199, 7042, 2658

/ 100 compat

Projected

162 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5199, 7042, 2658

Auto

67.9 43%

Teleop

69.5 44%

Endgame

19.9 13%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4738, 4415, 7415

/ 100 compat

Projected

338.6 pts

~2.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4738, 4415, 7415

Auto

84.9 25%

Teleop

148.4 44%

Endgame

100.4 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.05 · Blue 2.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score162pts

Blue projected score338.6pts

Red win probability10%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 27%, blue 26%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -176.6
Score range: 103–398
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 626 vs event baseline 328.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

495.5Season APEX567.1

67.9Auto84.9

69.5Teleop148.4

19.9Endgame100.4

91Consistency81

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	62	101
teleop	173	148
endgame	58	69
foul	5	10
total	298	328

Result

Final score

298 – 328

Prediction correct · off by 73.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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