FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 117

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

313.8 – 253.94

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

253 – 206

Prediction correct · off by 54.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 576.5 ±9.8

2984Vikings Robotics

Season APEX 127.9Event APEX 52.22Rank 27Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6995NOMAD

Season APEX 191.6Event APEX 145.38Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3512Spartatroniks

Season APEX 257Event APEX 116.2Rank 16Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 447.4 ±9.8

1148Harvard Westlake Robotics

Season APEX 121.3Event APEX 98.97Rank 48Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

968RAWC (Robotics Alliance Of West Covina)

Season APEX 86.7Event APEX 33.72Rank 59Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8119TigerBotics

Season APEX 239.4Event APEX 121.25Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2984, 6995, 3512

/ 100 compat

Projected

313.8 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2984, 6995, 3512

Auto

59.5 19%

Teleop

162.6 53%

Endgame

85.7 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1148, 968, 8119

/ 100 compat

Projected

253.9 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1148, 968, 8119

Auto

29.6 12%

Teleop

134.1 54%

Endgame

85.3 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.35 · Blue 1.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score313.8pts

Blue projected score253.9pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 34%, blue 20%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 59.9
Score range: 195–373
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 459 vs event baseline 329.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

576.5Season APEX447.4

59.5Auto29.6

162.6Teleop134.1

85.7Endgame85.3

76Consistency146

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	23
teleop	134	76
endgame	87	92
foul	0	15
total	253	206

Result

Final score

253 – 206

Prediction correct · off by 54.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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