FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 116

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

350.55 – 343.63

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

265 – 277

Prediction missed · off by 76.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 505.6 ±9.8

5136MechaPirates

Season APEX 152.1Event APEX 104.05Rank 29Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6695GalvaKnights

Season APEX 133Event APEX 90.58Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4322Clockwork

Season APEX 220.5Event APEX 155.92Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 506.2 ±9.8

3408cyberCubs

Season APEX 135Event APEX 101.35Rank 30Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3647Millennium Falcons

Season APEX 141.7Event APEX 107.72Rank 44Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2429The Blockheads

Season APEX 229.5Event APEX 134.56Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5136, 6695, 4322

/ 100 compat

Projected

350.5 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5136, 6695, 4322

Auto

63.0 18%

Teleop

205.7 59%

Endgame

82.4 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 38%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3408, 3647, 2429

/ 100 compat

Projected

343.6 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3408, 3647, 2429

Auto

66.6 20%

Teleop

193.4 58%

Endgame

73.9 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 38%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.1 · Blue 1.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score350.5pts

Blue projected score343.6pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 75%

Supercharged bonusred 38%, blue 24%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 6.9
Score range: 285–410
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 542 vs event baseline 330.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

505.6Season APEX506.2

63Auto66.6

205.7Teleop193.4

82.4Endgame73.9

77Consistency162

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	38
teleop	130	174
endgame	76	65
foul	5	0
total	265	277

Result

Final score

265 – 277

Prediction missed · off by 76.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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