FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 115

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

236.87 – 255.2

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

118 – 242

Prediction correct · off by 66 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 366.6 ±10.4

2485Overclocked

Season APEX 106.1Event APEX 75.73Rank 52Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7157μBotics

Season APEX 114Event APEX 36.22Rank 42Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4Team 4 ELEMENT

Season APEX 146.5Event APEX 124.92Rank 35Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 427.6 ±9.8

687The Nerd Herd

Season APEX 227.6Event APEX 112.07Rank 24Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4419Team Rewind

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 69.22Rank 40Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1197TorBots

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 73.91Rank 55Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2485, 7157, 4

/ 100 compat

Projected

236.9 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2485, 7157, 4

Auto

29.3 13%

Teleop

112.8 50%

Endgame

84.4 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 687, 4419, 1197

/ 100 compat

Projected

255.2 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 687, 4419, 1197

Auto

65.1 28%

Teleop

103.0 44%

Endgame

68.2 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.73 · Blue 1.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score236.9pts

Blue projected score255.2pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 26%, blue 24%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -18.3
Score range: 177–315
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 360 vs event baseline 331.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

366.6Season APEX427.6

29.3Auto65.1

112.8Teleop103

84.4Endgame68.2

112Consistency108

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	60
teleop	59	105
endgame	31	27
foul	5	50
total	118	242

Result

Final score

118 – 242

Prediction correct · off by 66 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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