FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 114

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

419.13 – 406.85

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

424 – 317

Prediction correct · off by 47.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 742.3 ±9.3

2584Flame of The West

Season APEX 140.4Event APEX 118.79Rank 20Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9408Warren Warbots

A+

Season APEX 303.1Event APEX 131.44Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2659RoboWarriors

A+

Season APEX 298.8Event APEX 168.9Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 526.6 ±9.8

2710JetStream

Season APEX 101Event APEX 107.35Rank 54Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

812The Midnight Mechanics

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 66.43Rank 38Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3476Code Orange

A+

Season APEX 325.1Event APEX 233.07Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2584, 9408, 2659

/ 100 compat

Projected

419.1 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2584, 9408, 2659

Auto

81.1 20%

Teleop

232.7 57%

Endgame

91.1 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 40%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2710, 812, 3476

/ 100 compat

Projected

406.9 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2710, 812, 3476

Auto

109.5 28%

Teleop

201.1 51%

Endgame

82.1 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 40%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.17 · Blue 1.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score419.1pts

Blue projected score406.9pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 40%, blue 21%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 12.3
Score range: 347–479
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 741 vs event baseline 331.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

742.3Season APEX526.6

81.1Auto109.5

232.7Teleop201.1

91.1Endgame82.1

121Consistency97

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	52	111
teleop	231	138
endgame	126	68
foul	15	0
total	424	317

Result

Final score

424 – 317

Prediction correct · off by 47.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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